Former governor Lee Kinyanjui emerges as key challenger in 2027 Nakuru race

Even before former Nakuru Governor Lee Kinyanjui publicly declared his intention to contest the county's top seat in 2027, his name had increasingly featured in political conversations as early maneuverers ahead of the General Election began to take shape.

Now that he has formally thrown his hat into the ring after months of speculation and sidestepping questions about his political future, attention has shifted to whether the former governor can mount a successful comeback in a race that is already beginning to gather momentum.

While several aspirants are positioning themselves to challenge incumbent Governor Susan Kihika, political observers say Kinyanjui's previous tenure continues to dominate discussions, with supporters pointing to his development record as a reason he remains one of the strongest potential contenders should he decide to return.

Political analyst Eng. Victor Ngatia said Kinyanjui's greatest advantage lies in the perception among many residents that he performed better than both his predecessor and the current administration.

“It is acknowledged that he performed better than Kinuthia Mbugua and better than what we have seen in the last four years. That, by itself, automatically makes people look to remove the incumbent, and if they don't have another option, they quickly look back to somebody who has done something better before. That's how Lee comes into the picture,” he said.

According to Ngatia, Nakuru's voting history has traditionally been influenced by prevailing political waves, with voters rallying behind dominant parties during successive elections. He cites the country’s shift from TNA in 2013 to Jubilee in 2017 and UDA in 2022, saying the next election could once again be shaped by the political mood in the Mt Kenya region.

Even so, he opined that Kinyanjui's prospects may depend less on the party he eventually chooses and more on his personal track record.

“Lee stands a chance simply by being who he is, not necessarily because of the party. The party is the way it is,” he said.

Ngatia noted that there has been speculation that the former governor could join Jubilee or even revive the Ubuntu Party, although he says no decision has been confirmed.

“There is a likelihood he could use Ubuntu, but nobody has confirmed beyond doubt that he is coming with Ubuntu or not. What remains is that Lee, as a manager, has built a reputation that anyone seeking to challenge him will have to work hard to overcome,” he said.

However, Ngatia said Kinyanjui's current role in President William Ruto's administration could also become a political liability should he enter the race.

Ngatia noted that while many acknowledge Kinyanjui's performance in office, there is also a section of residents who would prefer a fresh face rather than what they view as a recycling of political leaders.

“I’ve also heard sentiments from people who acknowledge that Lee did well but wish they could get somebody else who has not been there before so that it is not a recycling story. Those sentiments are there, but we cannot run away from the fact that many believe Lee performed better than the rest. That is his biggest chance if he decides to come back,” he said.

He nevertheless added that Nakuru would also welcome a completely new candidate with no political baggage, noting the county ultimately needs leadership focused on delivering for residents rather than political manoeuvring.