Will cabinet reshuffle save Kihika’s re-election bid?

As Nakuru edges closer to another electoral cycle, you may have noticed that Governor Susan Kihika’s recent appointments (replacements) were marked not only by the professional pedigree of the nominees but also by the political and ethnic calculations that seem to underpin them.

While officially framed as efforts to strengthen service delivery, analysts argue the reshuffle points more to ethnic balancing and loyalty than to technical expertise.

This is not entirely new, as previous administrations also used cabinet slots as political tools to strike a balance among communities, while drumming up support.

Kihika herself faced early pushback.

Shortly after taking office in 2022, her first cabinet list was halted by the Employment and Labour Relations Court, for failing to reflect the county’s ethnic diversity, forcing her to revisit her approach after the court ruling.

Political Analyst Eng. Victor Ngatia notes that the current round of selections appears to mirror a familiar pattern.

He observes that Kihika is trying to balance constitutional requirements with political realities, making appointments that pump up her support base across different communities.

He adds that some of the new faces may not have been picked for their professional pedigree, but rather for their perceived ability to rally particular voting blocs.

According to him, such tactics are not unique to Kihika and have been used by previous administrations to build political bridges through strategic placements.

Eng. Ngatia, however, cautions that the link between political appointments and electoral success is tenuous and often a shift in perceptions and the feeling that “something better” by voters has often outweighed even the best.

“What we have seen is that this arithmetic does not necessarily translate into electoral victory,” he explains. “Voters in Nakuru have shown that they judge their governors less on appointments and more on overall delivery.”

He points out that Nakuru residents often make up their minds in the run-up to the election period. In his words, “Once people have decided that a governor is going home, no amount of political maneuvers will change that.”

Eng. Ngatia cites the case of former Governor Lee Kinyanjui, who made visible efforts across sectors and sub-counties yet was still voted out.

He recalls that Kinyanjui invested in roads, hospitals, and other projects countywide, which should have strengthened his re-election chances, but it failed.

He argues that Governor Kihika faces a similar risk.

“It’s not what she does now that will ensure she comes back. Anyone who could have done better things in Nakuru was Susan, but she didn’t,” Ngatia says, further criticizing her handling of oversight queries, pointing out that she has been summoned several times by the Auditor-General without convincing responses.

Moreover, sustained governance failures or the public perception of a leader being “out of touch” can erode re-election chances, even if the cabinet appears balanced on paper.

“If these appointments are seen as loyalty rewards rather than vehicles for better services, the governor may find that her strategy backfires,” he concludes.

On his part, Benson Macharia, a Nakuru-based political commentator and chairman of Friends of Devolution, echoes this view.

He argues that tribal appointments rarely carry political weight in a cosmopolitan county like Nakuru.

“Even when governors appoint people from particular tribes, residents don’t necessarily identify with them. Appointees end up working for the governor, not for their communities,” he says.

Macharia recalls that previous administrations also leaned on tribal balancing and aligned themselves too closely with national leadership, “operating as if they were a national government department,” while forgetting their local mandate.

He argues that such leaders lost touch with the everyday needs of residents and missed the point on deliverables, and cites former Governor Lee, who, despite rolling out projects across the county, was still voted out.

Turning to Kihika, he is blunt, reiterating Eng. Ngatia’s views.

“She started well in her first year but lost touch with the people in the second. Many projects stalled, and by the time the Auditor-General flagged billions in unimplemented projects, residents had already begun questioning her leadership.”

Macharia concludes that Nakuru residents typically decide the fate of their governors within the first two years.

“Once people conclude a governor is going home, nothing will change that. The only path to re-election is to deliver on promises and respond to the real needs of Nakuru people.”